Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 12.995669 15.890452 19.111671 22.938344 27.335870 32.206804 37.984766
2025-11-30 9.084739 12.864955 17.537309 23.631538 31.257931 40.371623 51.961705
2025-12-07 6.526133 10.468284 15.780440 23.234656 33.176765 45.723805 62.469655
2025-12-14 5.050574 9.043070 14.837104 23.472205 35.587993 51.535468 73.607172
2025-12-21 3.671829 7.381965 13.191574 22.380659 35.914815 54.442903 80.951921
2025-12-28 3.017757 6.692581 12.819597 22.981937 38.524239 60.445800 92.596745
2026-01-04 2.451988 6.005295 12.308409 23.249512 40.583615 65.712100 103.402870
2026-01-11 2.032374 5.478127 11.958006 23.684785 42.860579 71.339182 114.897417
2026-01-18 1.725096 5.094020 11.783070 24.354606 45.497848 77.570443 127.462570
2026-01-25 1.353746 4.460587 11.034674 23.934572 46.323309 81.087630 136.173898
2026-02-01 1.121014 4.080006 10.703527 24.191771 48.231533 86.292154 147.524958
2026-02-08 0.887298 3.616429 10.118178 23.899659 49.163256 89.983240 156.697396
2026-02-15 0.655526 3.081278 9.316409 23.174757 49.422464 92.830165 165.048298
2026-02-22 0.550046 2.889244 9.256315 23.908832 52.320433 100.088872 180.563633
2026-03-01 0.412026 2.514238 8.680107 23.510478 53.122153 103.931301 190.847890
2026-03-08 0.328009 2.289802 8.427860 23.750348 55.094307 109.775701 204.480413
2026-03-15 0.222085 1.891448 7.614459 22.648712 54.421902 111.087952 210.841196
2026-03-22 0.182770 1.775977 7.564064 23.255566 57.079212 118.203867 226.851370
2026-03-29 0.143712 1.627807 7.381212 23.525612 59.075187 124.232217 241.242996
2026-04-05 0.115056 1.513662 7.276067 23.964891 61.428302 130.967044 256.993940
2026-04-12 0.094840 1.435219 7.268708 24.640844 64.298076 138.717497 274.653549
2026-04-19 0.066239 1.250650 6.848594 24.216968 64.842275 142.284552 285.338263
2026-04-26 0.050584 1.150257 6.700187 24.476521 66.837102 148.553252 300.781981